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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (10425)	3/19/2004 8:16:48 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 110194

<Fund buying adds $8 premium to oil price--experts> Totally to be expected when the Fed finances Crack-up Boom behavior with one percent fed fund rates. Hightower Report which is a source I respect, feels that 40 cents is added to oil prices for every 10,000 net long spec contracts. Right now specs are long 140,000, adding about $5.40 to oil. So I say the "natural price" of oil is about $32-33, with the Fed induced Crack-up Boom (Flucht in die Sachwerte) price being the additional balance. No reason to think it won't get even worse if they stick with the current monetary policy. Copper drawdowns have suddenly gone into overdrive, may be a panic on. Was running 4500 a day, last five days avg 6000, last three days 7000, yesterday 7532. I may have to move up my "last ounce" projection up to early May rather than Memorial Day. Yesterday's combined LME-Comex was 455,690.

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