The rush to grab the remaining inventory is about to happen.
I talked to a friend that is a general foreman of a big electrical shop here in Silicon Valley. He oversees jobs that run in the several millions just for the electrical side of it. Here is the response to his questions about copper and steel supplies:
I know it’s only been a couple days since my last email on this subject, but the more I get into this issue the worse the outlook gets. This is for real, so if we ignore it we will suffer greatly…
Barring a major global economic upheaval, the cost of steel conduit (and other steel products) will continue to rise dramatically throughout the year. Already our EMT costs will have doubled the first three months of the year. Lighting fixture manufacturers have or are about to announce price increases and this time it will stick.
We are beginning to see shortages. Trading emails with JON DOE in New Mexico and BOB DOE in Arizona, some of our suppliers are out of stock and back ordered on ½ and ¾ EMT. In the SF Bay Area, our suppliers have inventory, but I’m being forewarned of allocations by May or perhaps sooner. JACK DOE in Oregon attended an ASPE meeting on this issue and his notes confirm what I’ve been reading, hearing, and experiencing.
So this morning I started some “heads-up” conversations with:
JOE DOE – We will have to put as much focus and emphasis on steel as we do on copper, and for that matter major equipment, when we put together our bids.
LORRY DOE – Current and future scenario dictates that in order to hold pricing and secure supply we will have to make bulk-buys & drop/bulk ship to jobs or figure out a location to store, and experience large cash outlays up-front.
Steve DOE – The days of calling/faxing in daily orders for conduit and expecting delivery the next day will soon disappear. We will have to plan on large intermittent deliveries.
My next heads-up conversations will be with Div Managers (maybe this email will suffice), about the need to emphasize BOM’s for conduit and ,B>buy-out strategy at job start-up, and to emphasize change order BOM’s for additional conduit requirements that come up during the course of a project.
Attempts to “firm up” pricing under our present mode of buy/deliver as needed has become impossible. So, I’m trying to come up with different approaches… I welcome your input.
Kind of a doomsday scenario, but the days of treating steel products as a cheap readily available commodity are over!
The shit is about to hit the fan.
What is the best way to profit from this? |
