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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 72.11

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (65299)	3/19/2004 9:45:35 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) of 77397

Hi Lizzie, a lot of people in the U.S. think that if jobs aren't present then the economy must be in the crapper, but that's wrong. Jobs are always a lagging indicator, meaning they come only after the economy has already recovered and only after the economy has taken up all the slack. You see what happens is that when the economy tanks and companies start to improve productivity and cost controls, the economy builds up a lot of slack or excess capacity. When the economy then starts to improve, this excess capacity starts getting eaten up. When the slack is gone, then companies have to ramp up production even further and that usually means more jobs. Anyway, the most reliable independent organization that predicts economic cycle turns is ECRI. Check out their site: businesscycle.com They are saying that the economy is humming along nicely and I believe it. Company earnings have been excellent for 2 quarters running and this one is shaping up nicely. There is a very high probability that significant job growth will occur within the next 6 months, as well, since excess capacity is almost eaten up. BTW, Greenspan has been saying the same thing in his last few reports.

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