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Technology Stocks : Gemstar Intl (GMST)

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To: NY Stew who wrote (6383)3/19/2004 10:22:12 PM
From: tinkershaw  Read Replies (1) of 6516
 
and I'm also at a loss for the rationale behind speculation that Gemstar might be entitled to any monies from off-guide advertising.

I think Mike was talking about two things that I mentioned regarding TiVo's advertising model which I'm certain that Comcast will adopt as their PVR rolls out.

(1) is the TiVo "Showcase" which is an opt-in long-form ad. As an example, on the guide an ad might come up that shows the Mazda RX-8. When you click it the long-form ad starts playing.

The question was, will GMST get a cut of what Comcast gets for the long form ad, or will they simply get the usual fee for posting the banner ad on the guide?

Since GMST technology will be enabling the PVR functions that enables the ad, if GMST only gets credit for the banner ad fee on the guide, and not the fee Mazda pays for the Showcase type ad, then GMST will not be getting a cut of the most lucrative aspects of GMST technology enabled advertising, as the Showcase type ad is linked to by the guide but is not displayed on the guide.

(2) A second type of advertisement will also be linked to by the guide, and perhaps enabled by GMST technology, but again, the most lucrative aspects will not be directly on the Guide. On the guide an ad will appear, as an example, "Coke presents the Rolling Stones in concert". You hit the button on the Guide and your taken to a VOD of the concert (filled with Coke banners, et al.). Now, will GMST simply get the normal ad revenue for having the banner on the guide? or will GMST also get a portion of the ad revenue that comes from the VOD that GMST technology enabled?

It seems to me, and these are the types of ads that TiVo is experimenting with and pioneering, and these sort of ads do seem very powerful, is that this is where the big money for advertising in iTV will come from. VOD ads, that are either long-form opt-in type, or of the event sponsorship type. And if GMST is just limited to selling banner ads on the Guide, they will miss the cut on possibly the most lucrative portion of iTV ads.

It is also important because GMST technology will be utilized to run GMST's PVR that they say will come out this year. If GMST gets no cut of these PVR enabled type ads, other than the linking ad banner, then GMST is giving the PVR software and capabilities away essentially for free, as the Comcast deal appears to just pay carrier fees for the guide, and divvy up the guide ad and t-commerce revenue sharing. But it says nothing about GMST's cut of the advanced advertising through VOD that its technology will otherwise enable through PVR or other VOD features.

I hope I have not confused the matter, but I believe those are the sort of opportunities that Mike was referring to.

Tinker
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