ski and I had a conversation a while back, about whether the indices are in a [4] correction, or a correction of the ultimate degree, w/r to EW. I think the distinction important.
I am for the [4] for a lot of reasons:
- Prechter 'is' wrong on gold, I don't see there is much doubt about it.
- Prechter and many others have been harping that we are in a correction of ultimate degree. So confidently so I believe they are likely wrong. We recently heard of several who came out of the woodwork, that the 'BIG DOWN' has started. This is not the first time. It will not likely be the first time they are wrong, nor the last time we hear this.
- On a global basis all things are certainly not turning to crap, economically speaking. There are many countries and huge numbers of people joining the modern economy. Yes this makes for competition, but it also makes for new markets and a huge demand for commodities and goods. These countries will progress rapidly imo, and generate huge internal demand for things. Ultimately this is good for everyone.
- On the above basis I think it more likely that the our markets are in a major correction, as opposed to the view that globally everything is going into the tank. That correction is essentially a realignment and readjustment, albeit a huge one. The realignment is one that more than anything else will mean the US is not the only global power, economically or militarily. Again this is good, not bad.
- New technology, such as fuel cells and developed by the west, is likely to come along as well, making for new adjustments at some point down the road. This technology is most likely to come out of the west. The ability of countries like the US to adjust, and the internal wealth, knowledge and power they hold is not likely to disappear within a few years.
- Given these considerations, I think a likely possibility for the continuing correction we are in is shown in the attached, and just a huge ABC that will take a long time to complete. It will for some years remain a traders market.
- I am at present not the LT bear I was, just a few months ago.
- Mainly something to think about, rather than cast in stone.
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