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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (10528)3/20/2004 5:53:13 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Re: This, in my view, is not a normal base metal cycle,

Correct, this is the first post-industrial metal cycle in the U.S. TTBOMK, there is only one plant in America still producing steel from iron ore. The balance are mini-mills and hybrids. With the Chinese bidding the price of scrap steel to a very high price, there is a huge and long-term bind on the mini-mills.

In a post I read earlier, one developer of light commercial buildings just stated that his builder was quoting "miscellaneous iron" at a 500% premium over the price one year ago! This is astonishing to me. Whatever is happening in the steel industry today isn't even remotely close to normal.

Re: This is a fundamental change in the market that will persist for a long time.

So, how long is permanent?
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