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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 344.71-1.1%Jan 23 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (14126)3/21/2004 6:05:37 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 95761
 
During the past 9 weeks, the mean target prices projected by the "analysts" for the Group have continued to increase, for the most part, while the stock prices have continued to go down. The table below shows this situation for the past 9 weeks. The first 2 columns show the difference in mean target prices for the past 9 weeks. The 3rd column shows the delta between the first 2 columns and the 4th column shows the percent change for the first 2 columns over the 9 week period. The 5th column shows what has actually happened, in percentage terms, for the Group. In general, while the mean estimates have been going up, the stocks have been "tanking" big time. At the bottom line, while the mean target prices were increased by 9 percent, the Group was down -24 percent.

-					9 WEEK
-      1/17/04 3/19/04		PCT	PCT
SYMBOL	MEAN	MEAN	DIFF	DIFF	CHANGE
AMAT	27.98	29.91	 1.93	  7	-17
ASML	21.33	23.57	 2.24	 11	-23
ASYT	20.67	18.89	-1.78	 -9	-55
ATMI	32.33	31.17	-1.16	 -4	-11
BRKS	27.68	28.44	 0.76	  3	-29
CMOS	18.22	20.19	 1.97	 11	-33
COHU	26.50	25.00	-1.50	 -6	-17
CYMI	50.22	48.57	-1.65	 -3	-27
DPMI	25.50	26.29	 0.79	  3	-8
EGLS	 1.00	 1.00	 0.00	  0	-24
FSII	 9.75	 9.75	 0.00	  0	-19
HELX	22.33	28.67	 6.34	 28	-9
KLAC	60.10	70.47	10.37	 17	-20
KLIC	17.71	22.29	 4.58	 26	-27
LRCX	34.30	38.58	 4.28	 12	-32
LTXX	19.86	25.29	 5.43	 27	-26
MTSN	13.50	17.67	 4.17	 31	-25
NVLS	46.00	44.22	-1.78	 -4	-30
PHTN	40.07	47.93	 7.86	 20	-26
PLAB	24.67	23.88	-0.79	 -3	-20
SMTL	14.00	21.00	 7.00	 50	 -7
TER	24.09	32.30	 8.21	 34	-30
UTEK	37.33	37.33	 0.00	  0	-34
VECO	28.75	31.60	 2.85	 10	-21
WFR	15.00	15.43	 0.43	  3	-28
TOTALS 658.89  719.44	60.55	  9	-24
SOX-X					-17
COMPQX					 -9
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