Re. 1) The BLS payroll survey and household survey are showing different things. One says jobs have gone down, one say jobs have never been higher. Thanks for the bls link. Here are some things I found there.
Here's some words from a discussion of the difference between the payroll (establishment) data and the household data:
Differences in employment estimates. The numerous conceptual and methodological differences between the household and establishment surveys result in important distinctions in the employment estimates derived from
the surveys. Among these are:
--The household survey includes agricultural workers, the self-employed, unpaid family workers, and private household workers among the employed. These groups are excluded from the establishment survey.
--The household survey includes people on unpaid leave among the employed. The establishment survey does not.
--The household survey is limited to workers 16 years of age and older. The establishment survey is not limited by age.
--The household survey has no duplication of individuals, because individuals are counted only once, even if they hold more than one job. In the establishment survey, employees working at more than one job and thus
appearing on more than one payroll would be counted separately for each appearance.
.....
Another major source of nonsampling error in the establishment survey is the inability to capture, on a timely basis, employment generated by new firms.
.....
bls.gov
This shows employment numbers increasing from 136.4 million in Feb. 2003 to 138.3 in Feb. 2004. Meaning about 2 million more people employed now than a year ago:
HOUSEHOLD DATA
Table A-6. Selected employment indicators
(In thousands)
Not seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Characteristic
Feb. Jan. Feb. Feb. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
2003 2004 2004 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004
Total, 16 years and over.......................... 136,433 136,924 137,384 137,318 138,095 138,533 138,479 138,566 138,301
bls.gov
I know of a fellow who retired at 55 from the company I work for and now works as a contractor for the company (through an agency) four days a week. I would think he wouldn't show up on anyone's payroll but he is working.
Re. 2) I don't like to see the deficit go up but I also know the economy took a hit from 911 as well as the continuing effect of the late 90's bubble bursting. If we weren't running a deficit now, the job situation would be much worse.
Re. 3) Both Bush and Kerry (despite his hints to the contrary on the stump) are committed to free trade. Bush has only deviated from the free trade course in a couple areas involving steel tariffs and timber imports from Canada. In both cases, to protect American jobs. Ironic to for him to be criticized simultaneously for not creating enough jobs and for being over-protective of American jobs. |
