Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (69078)	3/22/2004 8:00:21 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) of 94695

And what do you need, a crash? They don't happen in reality. -g- Of course, you need them if you play ST puts. But I have given up on those some time ago. It seems to be a little easier to play LT moves. Then, volativity increase is more than enough to still get you large profits. I wish I could do a rigorous study of the Hurst exponent (which shows how trending the market is) over different time scales. I almost can bet that for time scales < 3 months the fluctuations are almost random (TA does not work), so one can't win playing options due to the buy/sell spread and fees. From what I read, 6 month and longer, the market is very trending (put it another way, TA works!)

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