Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: energyplay who wrote (47647)	3/23/2004 3:55:11 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) of 74559

CODE BLACK I received this today from a lunch pal: QUOTE with increase of terrorism (killing of hamas' yassin ysday, madrid bombing) and the oil production running at 97% capacity utilization (80mm barrels used everyday with only 2.5mm spare production), this is obviously a recipe for disaster. current oil at $38/barrel compares to 1979 infl adjusted price of $100/barrel all time high. there is plenty of room for price runup. csfb's equity strategy for asia has turned bearish and says over next 2 years, we will be in retreat. there is a doomsday scenario feel to the mkt that i think is being underpriced.. this pessimism which started in mid feb has only accelerated i think by most indicators. 1. high yld sprds has widedned 50bps to 508bps since mid jan 2004 2. equity/bond ratio had topped out feb 15 3. there are no jobs.. we need 200k of monthly payrolls to maintain current output gap.. its currently widening right now 4. the new socialist party under zapatero in spain will re-allign itself with france and germany and there will be increased anti-americanism in europe and more protectionism. american politics are already protectionist and will grow, hence greenspan's view that we must roll back the tide of protectionism falsely guised as protection of worker's rights worldwide. this is bad for equities in particular. this is a risk reduction time UNQUOTE ... and so I say, time to run, time to hide, and the last one out the door is either a Long Term Buy and Bag Holder ("LTBBH"), or the door mat; same difference. Jay

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next