ftth, I'm not so sure that the simple example you've described is even doable other than in a limited environment (read: a walled garden, for lack of a better term) beyond whose requirements scaling is unlikely to become a problem. But I have to keep an open mind here, and realize that the way I perceive these matters is largely a function of that which precedes, rather than that which is ultimately possible. In my earlier days I've stepped on my private parts more than once by using the term "never."
Again, I'm reminded of the naysayers' reactions to the Bell Labs predictions and schemas of going to an all digital network framework at one time. The economic and technical arguments they offered were convincing to a great extent, and there were a lot of false starts and shuffles going on to make digital work. But in the end, well... we're typing to each other over all-digital facilities now in ways that were only imaginable to McLuhan and a few others at the time.
I have argued many of the same points that you've brought up on this thread in the Optics Section of the Gildertech forum. And while I still hold my ground on most if not all of those points, the optimist in me says that there is some room for innovation that will very likely occur that will have most of us scratching our heads at some point, wondering: "Hey! How come I didn't think of that!"
While we're on the topic of all optical, I came across an article in today's Lightwave Magazine Newsletter (are you ready for another acronym?) that speaks to the issue of utilizing some of the fiber glut that is said to be out there, and implies that with all of the glut, there is still a shortage of bandwidth (and, through extension, I would assume, connectivity). I've copied the article below. Note that the author of the report that is referenced is Business Communications Co., and not Business Communications Review.
Enjoy, FAC
------------------------------------------------------------
AON market for all technology types to reach $178 billion by 2008, according to BCC research
March 23, 2004 Norwalk, CT--While carriers have dark fiber excess and fiber manufacturers see a "glut," all optical network (AON) equipment and service companies are taking advantage of the existing fiber infrastructure. With the increasing market demand for bandwidth in local and remote applications, industry is developing and deploying communications networks to accommodate the demand by resolving "last mile" limitations. Two major technology types of AON technology have evolved in this effort: WDM and TDM.
According to a March report from Business Communications Company, Inc. entitled, "RG-285 Optical Share of the "Last Mile:" AON Technologies, Strategies and Emerging Markets," the global value of the AON market for all technology types is expected to reach $138 billion within the first quarter of 2004. Values are projected to grow at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 5.2% and reach $178 billion by the end of 2008.
Overall, the industry appears to be poised for recovery from the decline of recent years. In 2001, only 17% of companies in the sample were showing a profit or not showing losses. By 2002, the sampling showing sales/revenue profits or not showing losses increased beyond 50%. Currently, annual reports for 2003 for all of public companies sampled are projecting growth and/or stability in 2004.
Technologies showing strong projections for this year are materials, optical terminals, and transmission systems. This may be directly related to the emerging building local-exchange carrier (BLEC) market and last mile solutions being implemented with fiber and hybrid strategies that include wireless options. As more metropolitan areas replace copper infrastructures with fiber to interconnect to dark fiber available through carriers, there will be an increase in revenues associated with fiber materials, cables, and services. Trend analysis confirms these categories show the quickest recovery.
Some maturity has been achieved with WDM optical networks and end user technologies. However, bandwidth capabilities are still too limited to meet current market demands alone. TDM optical networks and end user technologies have been shown to greatly increase bandwidth capabilities and are obtaining a market share even though the technology type is still considered immature.
Transitioning from the current legacy network strategies has presented multiple challenges globally. New industry coalitions are emerging to address the need for new global standards and cooperation. The development of new standards and collaboration is necessary to reduce or eliminate limitations in technology and increase available bandwidth in the current infrastructure.
More information on the report, slated for release this month is available by contacting Business Communications Co., Inc., 25 Van Zant Street, Norwalk, CT 06855, telephone: (203) 853-4266; ext. 309, Email: publisher@bccresearch.com.
lw.pennnet.com |
