Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: Investor2 who wrote (1236)	8/18/1997 4:56:00 PM
From: Dogbert	of 42834

RE: "mainly because the great bear markets start with deflation ..." I am in Tokyo on business this week, by coincidence. If you want to see an example of a great secular bear market with unrelenting deflation, look no farther. Consumer interest rates (auto) are 0.5%-1%. (I am near a BMW dealership and there is a sign advertising that.) The government has lowered rates for years to try to stimulate the economy and it doesn't work. The parallels between how it happened here years ago and what's happening in the US are eerie. There was an economic boom called the "bubble economy" where the stock market soared, people were quitting their jobs to do stock trading (where they could make more money), there were lots of stories about housewives out earning their working husbands by trading. Housing and land prices soared with all the wealth generated in the stock market. Then there were some big down days, but always followed by smaller rallies to suck a few more into buying. The unwinding has been playing out for years and years now. And prices have been stagnant to declining for years. Everyone seems afraid of a 1987 crash. I'm afraid of a 10 year bear.

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