Don't disagree or agree.
What do mean?
I find the channeling to be essential for me to INTUITE from.
Now that is vague admittedly, but the intuitive part of decision making is that part that can't be charted.
I need find what think is an amazing chart.
It is of Japan from the its bubble high.
I drew it to show that the primary upper down trendline line was broken through several times but after 13 years it finally hit dead-on the lower side of the of Primary downtrend channel when Nikkei broke into it's latest rally mode.
But yes, support resistance lines to me are VITAL.
But , if my scenario develops O.K., i will go significant looooooooongterm 2-1 short and trade the support areas long on a trading basis.
I believe the lower side of primary downtrend will be hit, but maybe not for another 9 years.
So , for instance, when people post saying that's it, bull market is here to stay as the primary upper line downtrend channel has been broken.
That is when i was throwing up my Nikkei chart to "say rubbish"
While we analyze and chart 82% of Money Managers are convinced we have entered a LOOOOOOOOOOOOONG TERM Bull Market,,bear market has been crushed.
One reason being the primary downtrend is now broken.
I say , based on collection of all data i can find, and throw into the hopper, crunch it, come out with 'an intuited" answer to those "Rubbish" that declare we are in a new LOOOOOOOOOOONG lasting Bullmarket.
I BTW belong to a measured group of 1% that believe the Bear Market hasn't even started.(LOL!)
Plus i do count matters like politics, money supply yada yada to arrive at views---i am married to no line.
But a BIG QUESTION you have the accepted Sperandeo trendline line. in a back look it seems to so the bull run we have now.
The question did it show that break REALTIME or is it that it shows it after math manner.
I do see i beat his line in 2000, as i called sell, sell like hell all longs on April 5-7 2000--it was a mix of data and Intuition( Sperandeo trendline doesn't give sell signal until the final break of 3624.)
I didn't need to yell after that.
i don't know Sperandeo(i assume he is propietary)
i see we are challenging his trendline now--my scenorio would like not to be shattered and we rally to new highs for 2003 in at least SPX and DOW.
1190/1200 i am thinking then to go longterm short NDX and SPX.( by loongterm i am attempting to get to a hold that goes over 12months , because 15% tax bite much preferred)
i have doubts NDX will break to new highs(above 1560).
All my ideas are subject to change:)( never make one's own opinions regards the market a matter of ego, a rule for me) Welles as in Orson/ Lamont as in Cranston.:)
p.s. I did not call the March major reversal.
I went back checking and found one piece od data that was give a SCREAMING BUY BUY BUY signal, it was the Rydex Bear/Bull ratio, it had hit an ASTOUNDING, even shattered 1998 levels, with readings of 6-1. Bear to Bull.
Off hand this Sperandeo trendline is the first i have seen that was signally BUY BUY BUY, that is why i am interested did it show that in realtime????
But one thing, all were blessed the Gold Bugs too made out great also the past year. |
