energyplay: That's not how I read GWB, although you could very well be right.
I think if PRC were to atttack Taiwan , the US might protest on some level, and at another level call it an internal matter. No serious sanctions would result.
GWB launched what I considered at the time (and especially since then) to be an unnecessary war in Iraq, but he probably also justified it in his mind based upon oil being so directly tied to the economic health of the U.S. and Saddam being a butcher who required perpetual containment, absent removal.
None of those conditions would exist in China attacking Taiwan, now that Communism is a cultural remnant and its legacy of slaughter has been all but abandoned (everywhere but N. Korea) in deed, even if not word. I sure don't want to find out whether GWB has a true messianic zeal about right and wrong that trumps prudence in dealing with a "might makes right" situation in Taiwan. My read is that if pushed, he will push back.
Unfortunately, the U.S. has once again yoked our word, blood and treasure to another people's/nation's essentially internal governance dispute. In Iraq, we were clearly on the right side and doing a huge service; in Taiwan that is not so clear. Either way, and as usual, we can't afford the price after bipartisan lunacy in spending.
The few who recognize that cold economic reality (now coupled with terrorist retaliation), and subscribe to our non-intereventionist roots as expressed in Washington's farewell address, are handily outvoted by the looney left (who think we, on balance, harmed Iraq in freeing it) or the rabid right (who think we should protect people worldwide against unwelcome hegemony or oppression, at least when we have a power-based ulterior motive).
Oh, and about shorts: I like index LEAP puts at a time such as now, when the indices are looking strong and shorting individual stocks could result in abrupt pain. At least with puts you know your downside and you don't have to close the position based upon a one or two day move. |
