FWIW, current issue of Barron's has an interview with Art Smith, apparently the head guy at John S. Herold Inc.
Stocks he likes are listed as:
finance.yahoo.com
On his avoid or sell list:
finance.yahoo.com
I found the interview interesting and potentially helpful to me as an investor who has a recent interest in particular areas he discussed. (I'm just a novice however-- certainly compared to people here.)
Some points of interest for me:
"Every investor should have some exposure to the Canadian Oil Sands area in their portfolio." (I don't have any positions there.) He says it's okay to "reach a little bit for" SU.
"I'd raise the caution flag... on the Chinese energy triumvirate: CNOOC, Sinopec and PetroChina." "PetroChina's net worth is $41 a share and it trades at $50", according to Mr. Smith. I have a relatively large (for me) position in PTR, so I don't like to read that comment. -g-
About EP, mentioned here so often: "El Paso has $40 a share of debt, versus its $5 a share of stated book value. It is the most extreme leverage I've seen...They have an outstanding natural-gas pipeline business that's the core of their business. But the E&P business is a key part of their operations, too, and that's been in decline."
"We are up at 9.3 million barrels a day of gasoline demand. Fuel-efficiency gains aren't offsetting the growth in demand. The system is being run at flat-out capacity."
When asked for his best bets he replied, "Big names are British Petroleum and Total. We like ConocoPhilips. Among the E&P [exploration and production] companies there's Nexen and Noble Energy, Unocal and NorskHydro. We like Burlington Resources for its track record and current valuation." I have BP and COP on my watch list, and I've been considering starting buys there. Stock prices of the large integrated oils seem very high to me though, as if the market already discounts good news. (But again, I'm no expert here.) I have made small buys recently in XOM, not mentioned by Mr. Smith, but profiled very favorably elsewhere in Barron's.
I'd be interested in any comments here about the article or stocks mentioned.
Paul Senior |
