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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (10921)	3/29/2004 6:56:40 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 110194

I think my DTS wage and salaries numbers have been about as close on the job report as anything. In January yoy was down, and signaled a poor report, and bingo it was right. February's was up only 1.07%, but I felt that might translate into 100,000-125,000 jobs or so, but it apparently overstated it (unless there is now an upward revision). March is looking pretty solid, up 2.4%, so I just don't see anyway this will be a weak report. I guess if I'd have to SWAG, 150,000, maybe 170,000. If it came at much below that I'd have to say the data is badly flawed. I don't think 150-170k new jobs really does anything for the economy (it's more about the ability to borrow) nor is it anything the stock market should really celebrate. However, it may remove the very feeble "jobs only" excuse the market and the Fed has for the continuance of one percent Fed Funds rates.

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