<How bullish are you on oil?.
I'm somewhat concerned about the very big "crack-up boom" spec position. In the crude, NG, unleaded gas, fuel oil complex, it's a whopping 241,309 contracts w options. All it would take is an interest rate hike, and maybe some SPR build adjustments and you could see a substantial correction. You have to watch China too, are they into the Train Wreck, seizing up? Doesn't look like input goods coming in is slowing that much, just a tad. If the Baltic were to suddenly break below 4000, take note.The financial press will report this late.
quote.bloomberg.com
Also I noted recently that shipments out of the Middle East to the US are way up, and inventory has been building some in crude (but the wrong kind for gasoline). However, the mid-range fundamentals for energy are very bullish. Also energy equities are cheap, acting like it's $25 oil/$4 NG. I've lightened up some, but I'm hanging on to a core position. Actually as I've mentioned, some good opportunities have quietly opened up in the mining plays, so I've shifted more in that direction. |
