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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who wrote (3111)3/30/2004 10:27:23 PM
From: gregor_us  Read Replies (3) of 116555
 
Fresh Newcastle Brown Ale in Brooklyn, New York.

Well I'm back from New York where my sister had her second baby--which is too say good things are still happening though it's hard to believe.

But I did have time to enjoy several pints at the Brooklyn Inn on Bergen Street, and talk with my Behavioral Psychologist PhD buddy--who now trades for a fund in NYC.

What we decided is that there is an Inflation Panic brewing, in the works so to speak--and although we agree The Empire of Debt is a Scary House of Cards--we both wonder if its this Inflation Panic that will be the much-looked-for trigger.

We see the bond market moving against the Fed. And the Fed looking like a bunch of jolly stooges. My buddy calls it a *woosh* of inflationary panic upwards--where everybody and their cousin shifts into some kind of inflation-trade.

How long does this last?

Possibly not long. 3 months. 3 weeks.

How about 3 nano-seconds? Because as SOON as this happens that DEBT mountain is coming into play REAL quick.

To this I have added the possibility that there will be the return of a global growth paradigm to the global equity markets--for possibly the next 30-90 days. The notion of an inflation panic in the USA with robust foreign markets strikes me as odd--but that's what my gut tells me.

Overall, I remain more confused than usual.

This must be why I stayed in New York to drink some pints, and hold a wriggling, newborn baby boy!

LP
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