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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 53.34

-1.2%

1:44 PM EST

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To: tuck who wrote (11073)	3/31/2004 6:36:42 AM
From: bio_kruncher	Read Replies (1) of 52153

I am not following this but it seems interesting. The release of results based on only the 45 first patients is to me clearly inappropriate for a time to event analysis. So either they didn't know what they were doing or tried to do a big spin. So when they got 'caught' or realized the mistake they needed to issue the clarification. The full KM curves look pretty good to me showing median survival of about 330 days vs 200. (I am not sure why Supergen state there is no formal calculated median from KM analysis as there clearly is and I'm not sure ever seen results presented from these types of analyses without the medians)However because the curves do not separate until 100 days it is more dificult to show statistical significance. Also the number of patients (170) is a bit small and underpowered to find significance for differences like those above. They must have been expecting bigger median differences. My guess is they will show impressive median diferences but fail to reach statistical significance.

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