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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (11136)4/1/2004 10:37:15 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
funny on McCulley, bravo for not permitting a depression
bravo for buying time
bravo for fooling the stock market
bravo for allowing ransacking of inflated home equity
bravo for acting at all

but sad that the outcome will not be pretty
more debt to resolve
no more bubbles to inflate for deadbeat rescue

this is an historic set of paradoxes and curve balls
so many really bright people are misreading the signals
I side with Gross on this tagteam choice
he senses general inflationary pressures, so he punted on bonds
then he hides in TIPS, a little confused
he sees something horribly wrong, with Asians subsidizing credit markets
he correctly calls our Trez Bonds absurdly overpriced versus other bonds
he is very concerned about currency risk with a falling USDollar

McCulley seems to display aggregate inflation / deflation thinking
reflation will lift the system as a homogeneous unit
such thinking is rampant among the unenlightened cogniscenti
it will not
instead we get the cost side rising while the price side struggles to rise
thus we will produce a crackup
he misses most of the internal broken dynamics

/ jim
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