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Non-Tech : Marchex, Inc.
MCHX 1.767+1.6%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: levy who wrote (24)4/2/2004 3:13:17 PM
From: playavermont  Read Replies (1) of 159
 
"but you are right that there is a good chance this stock will dip below ipo price....after all most little stocks like this do...."

Normally I would agree. But there are differences here:

1. They have a well regarded management with a good history. No newbies here.

2. They are in a pistol hot sector. (ASKJ, YHOO, MAMA and soon GOOG)

Don't get me wrong... a market meltdown would surely hurt this stock. But barring any major upset to the market (fingers crossed) this stock should stay above its IPO of $6.50. Keep in mind we have already completed one full quarter in fiscal '04!

At $6.50 it would have the following multiples:

Projected 2004 Price/Sales of 3.50

(Aren't these guys known to be very acquisitive? What if they acquired a company in the next 3 to 4 months with annualized revenue in the $15 to $20 Million range? That would drop the P/S to 2.5 to 3)

Projected 2004 Price/Book of 3.50

Price/Cash of about 5

I would peg fair value somewhere between $8.50 to $12 for the foreseeable future (quiet period).
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