Jay, I recall you corrected me on the comparison of G to Q royalties and NEM to QCOM.
You are right that comparing Q and G directly is inaccurate, but there is a causal relationship between royalties, ASIC sales and other incomes for QUALCOMM and the QCOM share price. I don't have a convenient figure for royalties, which have never been officially disclosed, though some fairly accurate numbers have been leaked by Koreans and others.
Anyway, BREW, ASICs and other aspects of the QUALCOMM portfolio are part of the cyberspace revolution. More realistically, I should include many other companies in the comparison as QUALCOMM is really just a part of the cyberspace revolution and construction of It, albeit a vital component of the mobile world.
Also, I have a selfish motive which is my own financial interest in QCOM rather than the whole panoply of cyberspace companies. QUALCOMM could die and It would barely blink.
So I accept that I'm quoting a surrogate figure which has got a large component of froth, hype, excitement, hysteria, fiction, leverage, speculation, ignorance, guesswork and outright mania combined with irrational exuberance. But as our great and estimable idol, Uncle Al KBE pointed out, it's hard to know whether irrational exuberance is forming a significant part of the number.
There is also built into the number on the downward side, fear, speculation, ignorance, guesswork, hysteria, negativity, fiction, excitement [of the schadenfreude type], leverage, doom and gloom not to mention irrational terror.
Where the see-saw of the positive and negative is right now is hard to determine. I suspect that $68 for QCOM is overly enthusiastic for now, but maybe not. A LOT of people are buying CDMA stuff and surging into cyberspace.
My experience has been that Luddites outnumber the adventurous by a LOT. 999:1 That applies to flocks of birds, penguins on an ice floe, sheep in a herd - nobody wishes to step forward as a volunteer to see whether there is a cat hiding in the bushes, a sea lion prowling the water, a wolf pack on the hunt looking for a foolish individual to step out from the herd. There is a long and educational process built right into our DNA to be nervous if not outright frightened.
In the human realm, there have always been individuals who figure it out and bravely [apparently] step out of the crowd to circumnavigate Earth while the crowd gasps in fear. They are usually not as brave as it seems, as they have figured out that there is not really more security in the crowd, that the world is round, and what they are going to try is almost certainly right. While they are safely away, having fun, finding riches and nubile young maidens, the mob will probably rampage, maraud and self-destruct yet again.
Imagination and creativity are colliding with reality right now and have been for years in the CDMA cyberspacoid world. Reality is transmogrifying as the mob surges into cyberspace, leaving behind the Amish and Islamic Jihad [not to mention ye olde Aztecs clutching their gold talisman].
You are right. It is like a hot knife through soft butter. The collision of the 'real' 3D world with cyberspace is underway. The 'real' world seems strangely unaltered and unaware of the process, just as the life of chimpanzees didn't really change as humans climbed out of the trees and went to live in New York, Tokyo, Auckland and Beijing. But there are a lot of chimpanzees now having to put up with tourists.
Onward! So far, so good.
The adventurers have always left the Luddites behind in their caves, bewildered and bemused.
Mqurice
PS: Phew, that's a lot of ranting - already 10am. Better go to 3D! It's weird in cyberspace. |
