Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (3471)	4/2/2004 6:24:34 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 116555

Steve on the FOOL about jobs...... Kundlow mentioned something this morning that I have never heard of before: an estimate of new businesses "born" during the month and how many people these new businesses employ, which is included in the "new jobs" total. He said that this estimate is almost purly guesswork and the seasonal adjustments are huge. Steve From Mish.... Interesting I was not aware of that (for today) but I do know they do it. Hedonically adjusted jobs? Anyway here is how it works...... The Govt says GDP is up x% So if their data says 10,000 jobs created, if the GDP suggests according to their stupid model that 100,000 jobs were created, well they simply add 100,000 jobs to the total. The seasonal adjustments were enormous. I wonder how many treasuries FNM bought at the low in yields last week. Now they were whipsawed today for sure. If the next jobs number sucks they will get whipsawed once again Mish

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