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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 304.92

-0.1%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (14318)	4/2/2004 9:45:38 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95648

Hi Sarmad, <<Did you notice that stocks were being bought today, when in the similar scenario, they were being sold a month or two ago.>> It is amazing isn't it? For about 9 weeks most of the news being put forth was considered "bad news", now for the last couple of weeks, the news being put forth is considered "good news".;) As we noted however, the market was arguably overvalued going into the January earnings release season and the institutions took the opportunity to sell into strength. Now they are buying again to drive the the market into over valuation again. Will that happen again during the month of April? I don't have the answer, but I am sure going to be alert to the possibility and try my best not to get "burned" like I have been in the past. IMO the economy is strong. Is it strong enough to keep pushing stock prices higher past the April earnings reporting season into the July earnings season? I hope so, but the "jury" is still out on that scenario. I do expect strong earnings coming up which will tend to raise brokerage house ratings and subsequent earnings estimates. That happened "big time" in January, but it was not enough to prevent the sell off that ensued. In other words, the January earnings and subsequent higher earnings estimates were already priced into the stocks coming into January. Do we have the same situation now? - I don't know for sure, but the market was "knocked down" a lot in the recent 9 week decline. We have only had 2 "up weeks" so far - not nearly enough to repair the damage of the previous 9 weeks compared to the near term future which looks quite good. We will have to wait and see what transpires. Don

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