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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (47913)4/3/2004 12:32:46 AM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
>>very wise<<

I would think you would be ready to cut me a little slack, Jay, as you have forecast three of the last zero busts since 2001, and I have forecast none.

Of course, the beauty of SI is never having to say you were wrong. :)

So, on the record, I am forecasting zero busts for the balance of 2004 and 10+% gains in the Dow and Nasdaq by year-end. 2005 will be better.

From 3Dspace, lead times from both my PRC suppliers have lengthened due to "material shortages." My primary supplier, located in Jiangsu province, tells me they are paying 80% more for steel wire, 20% more for aluminum wire than a year ago, and that they are shut down at least one day a week due to the rationing of electrical power. These centrally-planned infrastructure-type issues are where the 15% compounded China growth for 20 (pick a number) years goes off the rails, I would say.
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