SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: mishedlo who wrote (3488)4/3/2004 10:23:25 AM
From: CalculatedRisk  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
The part time jobs is from the household survey, and I think that should be viewed with suspicion for this type of information.

March is always a huge hiring month. Not seasonally adjusted, over 1 million more people were added to the payrolls in March. The seasonal adjustment brought that down to 308K.

As an example, in "Leisure and hospitality" 224K people were added to the payroll, but seasonally adjusted this accounted for only 28K new jobs. This happens every year (and they all get let go in late summer ... and the seasonal adjustment keeps it from showing up the other way).

That is why we have to be careful jumping from the "Household survey" to the "Establishment survey", and from "seasonally adjusted" to the raw data.

I usually stick to seasonally adjusted establishment survey data. In that case, this is broad based hiring, but primarily in construction and retail.

The construction hiring is no surprise with the current hiring boom. That is why I've been focused on New Home Sales to see when the boom is ending ... the answer is: not yet.

Retail is also questionable because of the grocery strike. It is difficult to figure out the exact impact on the jobs numbers.

Best to you!
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News