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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (11253)	4/3/2004 10:53:22 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) of 110194

another thought i had, regarding your image of "twelve Philadelphias" a year being added to China, and the attendant strains on the global commodity supply chain--what these people in China and India are getting, at the margin (an extra 500 calories a day, some animal protein, a roof, maybe a moped?), seems a lot more important to them than the incremental gains to Westerners from cheap credit (granite countertops, a new H2, his and hers iPods...). so, while i would suspect that US-based demand for postmodern consumer trinkets could fall off quite suddenly in the face of a credit crunch, i would tend to think the Chinese and Indians will fight pretty hard to keep their extra 500 calories and other things which we in the West have taken for granted for the past century. such is to say that i would think the "twelve Philadelphias" phenomenon will continue, even if it is reduced to six or so by economic contractions. if this is correct, where is the letup in the global demand growth and when do commodities get a chance to catch their breath?

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