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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who wrote (3496)	4/3/2004 1:29:44 PM
From: Jon Tara	of 116555

"Let's start with total employment stats on page 7 .... They use the higher of unadjusted or adjusted whatever suits their purpose?" No. The widely-publicized figure of 308,000 you are referring-to is seasonally-adjusted non-farm employment. This is completely consistent - this is the same figure that is reported in the news reports every month. You're just not looking at the right item in the report. "Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail Total nonfarm ..... preliminary unadjusted 128,794 129,801 Total nonfarm ....... preliminary adjusted 130,240 130,548 WTF??? UNADJUSTED we gained 100,700 jobs ADJUSTED we supposedly gained 308,000 jobs How can this possibly jive with Table A-1?" Because this is non-farm employment only. It's a subset of total employment. There's nothing inconsistent about it, unless you make the erroneous assumption that changes farm and non-farm employment must be in the same direction and magnitude.

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