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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 215.32-0.2%Dec 30 3:59 PM EST
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To: niceguy767 who wrote (118257)4/3/2004 6:11:35 PM
From: Joe NYCRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
Niceguy,

On both fronts (MirrorBit and K8), it is how you perform compared to competition, and Intel seems to be somewhere between having stumbled and a complete disarray - eventually we will know which one it is, but now we can only guess.

So while both Athlon64 and Mirrorbit were ridiculously delayed compared to early expectations, Intel performed worse.

AMD seemed to have overcome the major hurdles, and now seem to be on the way to capitalize. How much - will depend on Intel finding (or not) its way out of the wilderness - as much as AMD's execution.

On the flash side, the next major hurdle will be shrinking Mirrorbit to 90nm (these shrinks were far from on-time and trouble free in the past), moving regular flash to 110nm and 90nm (should be more straight forward, and moving CPU production to 90nm (AMD statements and leaks look promissing).

AMD has so far managed the ASPs of K8 CPUs briliantly, but this was on volume of 100s of thousands to sub 1M units. The test will come when AMD has 2 to 3M for sale per quarter (in Q3 I think) and beyond. AMD statements were cautions on this subject, not promissing $100 ASP, but that has to be the target.

Joe
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