billmon.org
* Despite the big gain in March payrolls, the index of hours worked actually declined slightly, from 99.1 to 99.
* The average work week also fell, from 33.8 hours to 33.7 hours.
* Average hourly earnings rose a meager 2 cents, from $15.52 to $15.54. Without the seasonal adjustment, the average wage fell by a nickel.
* Temporary employment -- sometimes a leading indicator of future hiring trends -- shed 1,800 jobs last month.
The bigger artificial pop was probably from construction employment, which declined in February (due to bad weather) and jumped in March (better weather). The seasonal adjustment factors used by the BLS can't always cope with those kind of monthly swings.
But still, net, net, if I had to guess, I'd say payrolls probably rose at least 200-250k in March, which would have been a reasonably good month even back during the bubble.
However, if I had to guess again, I'd bet that job growth will be a good deal slower in April, and probably in May as well. As a rule, these kind of big monthly pops tend to even out over time. |
