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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: ajtj99 who wrote (94266)	4/3/2004 10:36:03 PM
From: SwampDogg	of 209892

<<Charts tell us all we need to know.>> I agree with you. I just do not see an overwhelming bullish setup on very much here. I see a clear 5 waves down in the $DOW off of the mid-Feb high on very high volume and a retracement on weak breadth. We closed right near the .618 level of the fall off of the Feb high. I see a long-term $DOW chart that hit the downtrend line off of the alltime high in Mid-Feb and then fell 750 points. I see a 1 year chart of the $DOW that is approaching its downtrend line off of the mid-Feb high and until it breaks it I am on the short side. We are already overbought on the dailies. I see an $SPX chart that broke lower out of a terminal pattern that is testing that breakdown from underneath. Until it breaks it I am on the short side. I see a $BKX that hit the top of a long term channel and collapsed. Until it breaks that channel to the upside I am on the short side. I see WMT that if it breaks out of a long term triangle it would be very bullish but it hasn't and it doesn't look like it will. I see a $RUT that looks like it may be forming a broadening top and until it breaks the top of that pattern I am on the short side. I see interest rates going higher and I see a whole lot of reasons why this market is finishing a Wave 2 retracement. We see what we want to see but there is certainly a very valid bearish technical view here. Maybe we fall off of a cliff and maybe we don't but I see nothing that makes me think that this thing is going to take off...yet. The lines in the sand are clear as stated above but right now this just looks like a upward correction. I guess that there can not be many more tricky spots in a wave pattern than a top of a wave 2 of 2.

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