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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.04

0.0%

Dec 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (14324)	4/3/2004 11:49:21 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) of 95640

Don, I really have to say that from a bullish standpoint there is little not to like about the recent market action. We need to realize however that the market is short term overbought. tal.marketgauge.com Although that is true I think it is likely to get even more overbought. As I looked through the charts this weekend I believe that the SOX/SMH may top out on perhaps Thursday of this week. If at that time the SOX has a relative strength (RSI) near 70, or more, then it might be time to cash in some chips. investorshub.com My own short term indicators are overbought with both the TRIN and TRINQ warning of an approaching short term top. Those readings along with a VIX/VXO warning due to its stretch more than 10% below their 10 day sma's argue for some short term profit taking but the NASDAQ New Highs are still well below previous peaks. And although the VXN is only 10% above its previous 52 week low the VIX/VXO are likely to fall below 14 before an ultimate top is reached. investorshub.com In addition I believe we are in Wave V of this bull run since October 2002. If I am right this could be a short but powerful move that we have embarked on leading towards a lasting market top: amateur-investors.com One thing worth watching will be the DOW Transports because they still have not confirmed the high set by the DJIA back in February. According to the Dow Theory this could be an early indicator of another Bear Market leg ahead. So if you are bullish, and there is no way I would be anything else for the next few sessions to next few weeks, then you need to hope for a long term Bull Market that the DOW Transports break out along with the DJIA as this rally continues: investorshub.com If the Transports don't get above 3091 on a closing basis then watch out below. Sorry to be a downer but someone has to point out the fact that past history does have a habit of repeating itself in the market especially since it's really hard to find a bearish voice anywhere near the threads I post on these days. Remember the crowd will ultimately be proven wrong every time. financialsense.com JMHO, and thanks for all the terrific table data! RtS

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