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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (19013)	4/4/2004 12:49:56 AM
From: blankmind	Read Replies (3) of 78476

- I seldomly post on here - but over the years, I'm pretty sure i have a 100% track record - & this is verifiable by going to "Peoplemarks" on here - anyway - here's my first of 2 value picks: - INV - American Residential - trades at $9.06 - book value of $10.42 - earnings were projected to be $1.50 - $2 - but then guidance withdrawn - not lowered or raised - just withdrawn due to too many variables - INV takes mortgage apps off of brokers' hands - fund the mortgages - then sell the mortgage pools to companies such as Countrywide & Washington Mutual - INV is the biggest player by far in this sector - so since they don't service the loans - their risk of default is negligible - the good news & bad news is that INV has only 8.5 mill shs o/s fully diluted - so it's good because they're making a ton on e.p.s. - but bad because institutions can't easily get into such an illiquid stock - INV just came out with fundings for March of $877 mill; which were far higher than anyone on the yahoo boards projected - per 3/5/04 news release - D3 Family Funds Buys 1.1 Million Shares of American Residential From Home Asset Management Corp. - for $9.50 Per Share - David Nierenberg From D3 Appointed Director - so basically this turnaround fund thinks $9.50 is a good entry point - if INV delivers on its $2 eps for 2004; after earning $3.70 for 2003; with book value of $10.42; then I have to believe INV can easily double or triple from here. Good luck.

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