The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Mike da bear who wrote (11285)	4/4/2004 9:37:58 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (5) of 110194

<Eventually the truth will come to light that the job situation is dire.> I don't see evidence that the job market is dire, yet. But it could get that way in a hurry, as the heroin effect of tax refunds, and the refi boomlet wears off day by day. The real issue on this misreporting is the attempt to hide the real inflation numbers, because that's the one that will cause panic in the bond and credit markets. The panic scenarios laid out in Barrons Message 19985784 point to other threats as well: On the first, oil in other currencies, that's already happening defacto. The second: Chinese repeg, odds have increased for this now that Japan has let the Yen appreciate. It would also be a way for China to cool off inflationary forces and be able to better afford input goods. The third, removal of Japanese merchantilist intervention, their economy hitting on all cyclinders will not be the reason this transpires. The primary reason is that it's expensive, and getting tough to sell politically. It's also increasingly inflationary, and I think key players in Japan know it. The fourth, jobless recovery stalls out, seems a likelihood.

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