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Technology Stocks : Son of SAN - Storage Networking Technologies
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To: stockman_scott who wrote (4743)4/4/2004 1:28:28 PM
From: Joe Wagner   of 4808
 
Stockman Scott, I saw a leading semiconductor analyst give a talk on the outlook for high tech companies, and he was showing on a chart, that in 2000 right before the crash, inventories were skyrocketing to record levels while growth was declining. This was followed by a few years of huge negative growth. Currently he showed inventories are at record lows, and growth is back, and increasing. He seemed to think this was a good sign, and looked similar to the chart in 94.

I know leadtimes on components are moving out. If companies really believe growth will continue and get stronger, they will replenish inventories and leadtimes will really move out as demand moves way above supply, feeding the cycle. If it continues this should result in capacity having to be increased, starting another upward cycle in capital spending.

JW
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