Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 214.87

-0.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Tomcat who wrote (118306)	4/4/2004 7:00:32 PM
From: Elmer Phud	Read Replies (3) of 275872

Tomcat - Some of this analogy stuff is a stretch, but can anyone dispute that AMD is in a better position now than in any other time in its history? Or that Intel is struggling more than it has in a very long time? You may have to go back to when AMD was shipping faster 286s then Intel. But back then Intel had a solution, no more second source. There was a time when AMD was profitable. Now they've had 1 profitable quarter in the last few years. Their debt is larger than ever and they have only 1 logic fab. Their die size is huge and it runs on a very tempramental process. To boot there is now competition for x86-64 from a much lower cost supplier and you think they are in the best position in their history? How the tables have turned. Yes, AMD deserves credit for introducing X86-64 but you don't stay in business on your laurles. Intel has a much smaller die and 2 300mm fabs going to 5 over the next year or so. If you want to think of Intel now as the second source then I guess that's ok, but my measure of success is profits and Intel has them and AMD doesn't. AMD can not compete on price and their performance does not set them apart. Intel based systems now hold all the SPEC INT & FP benchmark records from 1 CPU up to 128. Intel x86 beats Opteron in all multi processor SPEC scores except SPECfp_rate where Itanium holds the crown. Despite the hoopla, no 8-way benchmarks exist for Opteron (unless I've missed them) and with the arrival of an alternative x86-64 architecture that scales to 32-way and above how will Opteron command high ASPs? Can the 2-way HPC market sustain profitability for AMD and meet the huge debt payments that are due in 2005 & 2006? What about A64? We have yet to see AMD demonstrate they can produce it in volume on 130nm and 90nm is a year an a half late and counting. After the last couple of years no prudent investor should believe any AMD roadmap until they see proof. All IMHO of course.

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