AC the soft belly is jobs. Jobs can derail Bush. That's why the job figures have to appear good. But it is good in the numbers only!
Pretty soon people is going to ask:
"Hey, why there are jobs only for the others and not for me?"
"Who is exaclty getting employed?"
The adminsitration gaisn time perhaps up to June to come out with other trick when this comes clear to the ignorant masses.
Dollar gains in anticipation of rate rise
By Steve Johnson in London
Published: April 2 2004 12:05 | Last Updated: April 2 2004 21:11
The dollar rose sharply on Friday as market-watchers scrambled to bring forward their forecasts for a US rate hike in the wake of buoyant payrolls numbers.
The US created 308,000 jobs in March, well ahead of the consensus forecast of 120,000, and the fastest level of jobs growth since April 2000, with January and February numbers revised up by a combined 87,000.
Most chose to ignore the accompanying, and more downbeat, household survey, weak earnings data and a raft of one-off factors behind the headline number.
The money market priced in the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve raising rates from their historic lows of 1 per cent before November's presidential election. "The market's complacency regarding the Fed's patience will be sorely tested by this release," said Daragh Maher at ING.
However Bob Sinche, head of currency strategy at Citigroup, called the money market moves a "relatively extreme shift in expectations given that seasonal factors likely played a role in the March payroll jump".
And David Bloom, currency analyst at HSBC, retained his view of no rate rises until 2005. "We didn't call a recession last month and we are not calling a boom now," he said.
The dollar rose 2 cents agaist the euro to $1.2115, 2 cents against sterling to $1.8295, and 2.4 centimes to SFr1.2919 against the Swiss franc. Despite this, the greenback was still generally weaker than on Monday. Aziz McMahon, currencies strategist ABN Amro, argued the dollar's bounce would have been more rapid if the speculative community had been short of dollars, rather than the neutral position they were in. But with "overhedged" European corporations and asset managers likely to unwind some of this hedging, he saw euro/dollar falling to $1.15.
Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York, also expects further dollar gains. "Next week's light schedule of US economic releases could provide the dollar with a chance to mount another test of the $1.20 level without risk of major data surprises getting in the way," he said.
Elsewhere sterling rose to £0.6623 against the euro, within a whisker of a 12-month. Yet more bullish housing data played its part, but the payrolls number, just days before a UK interest rate decision, was the key to the move. "The Bank of England has the benefit of making its Decision after the US labour report. It may make it more likely to raise rates," said Mark Cliffe, chief economist at ING. |
