Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 215.11

+0.1%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: pgerassi who wrote (118357)	4/5/2004 12:50:36 PM
From: Elmer Phud	Read Replies (2) of 275872

Pete Intel's 2 300mm logic fabs can't seem to produce much at this time. Less than 1 million Prescotts seem to have been produced last quarter. AMD's single 200mm logic fab seems to have produced as many 193mm2 dies as Intel has 112mm2 dies on these two huge 300mm fabs. And that single fab also produced over 6 million 100+mm2 dies as well. It seem yields must be 20 or more times lower for Intel by your previous arguments. If all were equal you'd be right, but you know that it's about 12 weeks from wafer start to the customers box. So you're really talking about mostly Q4 volume and what makes you think they are fully ramped? I expect Intel will be commenting on Prescott shipments in about 10 days. You may be a little off in your estimate. We'll see. Even if the yields somehow ramped to be roughly equal, Intel can't seem to sell 100 million CPUs a quarter at any price. I agree. There is far more capacity than can be consumed by CPUs if we assume normal yields. Unlike you, I assume Intel has something in mind and they aren't just building fabs without anything to produce in them. Thus any argument about the size of the die has no real meaning for Intel because they have too much capacity in any real case. Intel needs $5 to 6 billion dollars worth of production every quarter to stay profitable and that means $130 a die Easy to say when you have presented no data. I'd like to know how you arrive at this number. Please run the numbers for us and don't forget to include the 100s of millions of chipset components, XScale, uControllers, ethernet controllers, network processors, cell phone, wireless and other comms and of course Flash. Simply too many other issues raised in your post for me to effectively cover with the time I have right now. Suffice to say I disagree with your performance claims and your unfounded SPEC claims.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next