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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: gregor_us who wrote (11350)	4/5/2004 1:43:45 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 110194

The supply situation is getting worse by the day. The demand side is currently well funded from the last refi boomlet and the last of the tax refunds. China is showing only very small signs of backing off from overheating, quote.bloomberg.com although who really knows what's going on day by day with the shortage and bottleneck Train Wreck impacts over there. The other component of the Great Commodity/Input Goods Inflations are the "crack-up" boom, flucht in die schwerte speculators, who borrow at one percent and pile in. That group has pulled back here, which in my view just reloads the chamber (unless the CBs act aggressively to raise rates). I would guess this commodity phase/correction lasts about as long as it takes for the next set of weak economic numbers to take the bloom off the USD, and the Ministry of Propaganda's set of lies.

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