It it just me, or is the focus on job count nuts? I thought actual take home wages is what mattered? Please feel free to pick apart my analysis, anybody, that's one reason I post this stuff. Haven't heard a peep about this, so maybe I'm to assume no one's interested, and you'd rather just look at made up job counts rather than actual wages and salaries data (basis for withholding)?
fms.treas.gov
I think we have an apples and apples comparison right here: no month end noise, report to the Treasury by the 15th, no holiday, and a weekend, we have the exact same number of days too. If we look YTD through Friday, April 2,2004/ Fri. April 4, 2003 last year the yoy comparison is 394,938 vs. 395,880, down 0.25% That's pretty poor in my estimation? I'm using the same days to get a cleaner look at March and it's 152,122 vs. 151,122, but there's one extra day this year versus last. I don't know if you just take 4% off for the extra day or not, but whatever, this is NOT a strong labor month, given that last year was war impacted. I have no idea, what people are thinking on either the labor market or inflation numbers right now, but it's way off the mark with reality. Tough to pay higher food, energy, and other inflated prices with that, and there is no more tax relief? Of course they just borrow, on their credit cards apparentlyas the refi boomlet is ending again. Big time stagflation, the worst possible environment for all financial assets.
The DTS also gives the figure YTD on the tax refunds sent out, which are now about 80% complete (and spent?), unless there is reason taxpayers are filing significantly late this year? That number is now running 13.5% ahead of last year, well below the earlier 20% plus estimates of most analysts.
And with the refi boomlet ending, the lag effect of it's impact is a bit longer, then?
All looks dicey to me. |
