SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: russwinter who wrote (3625)4/5/2004 9:30:16 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Has to be that bunch, really no anybody else of significance to do it.

well, individual and institutional investors have very low non-equity allocations, and of course equities are ridiculously expensive. so a sufficient and much deserved equity rout could drive a flight to quality bid.

put it this way, when the DOW loses half its value and breaks to new bear market lows, and the SPX falls below 500, people might not look down so much on 5.5% compounding out of USTs (approximate current YTM of long-dated Zeros). it is certainly more than i would expect out of the broad market indexes over the next couple decades. a further thrashing of bonds in the meantime will only exacerbate the overvalued condition of equities.

and when you consider there is, what, $12 trillion or something in the schlock market, but just $800 billion in USTs maturing 5yrs and later (and less than $200 billion maturing 20yrs and later), it seems domestic buyers are indeed available if they should become so inclined.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News