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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (48079)4/6/2004 7:47:20 AM
From: BubbaFred  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
I couldn't figure out what Cobalt Blue was talking about. Well, yeah, some (many) people bought into the new economy and the supertanker hypes in late 1999 to 2000. Back then, I told some friends to sell their heavenly gift ten-fold lucky penny stocks, for there is a chance they could buy them back at a tenth or a fifth. But they did not heed because they were too complacent and were dreaming of heavenly castles.

There seems to be a mechanism in the market that allows bubbles to last much longer than they should, just enough to cause general complacency and deep slumber that will result or cause max pain for the small and medium shareholders (plus retirement plans). There is something that allows the bubble to stretch and expand to the max pain bursting stress point. I think it has to do with the flow of money into those mutual funds, and when 5% decides to pull out (i.e. wise enough to say thank you), then there is a significant outflow imbalance and mutual funds are forced to sell without equal buys. However, as long as there is net inflow into mutual funds, the market bubble can perpetuate or maintain the bubble - which is currently the case.

It reminds me so much of Enron's Skillings et al versus the worker bees. Only a few realize the gains to take to the banks, whereas the majority realize they can always go to the food lines.
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