What you meant to write was "it is inevitable that there will be a showdown between the CPA and Sadr's militia",
Did you pay attention to the time I wrote that post. Call it the result of insomnia and disrupted sleep cycle.. :0)
And since you seem to know all of my past posts so well, why don't you go back and find the one I'm pretty sure I wrote back last summer after the murder of Al-Khoei by Sadr's forces and the initial altercations we had with his brigades..
I believe I stated back then that a showdown was likely between Sadr and the CPA forces.
As for Sistani, there was an initial hint that he might be forced to back Sadr (out of self-preservation of any degree of authority amongst Shiites).
I believe that's why the CPA/IGC immediately followed with their arrest warrant for Sadr.. It was likely that this was something that would given Al-Sistani an "out" for not providing encouragement for Sadr. It also forces Al-Sistani to take a stance as either standing for the rule of law in bringing Sadr to justice for the killing of Al-Khoei, or supporting a rash and militant, Iranian backed, usurper to the "throne" of Shiism.
Sadr's making his play in advance of the change of government. The fact that he's holed up in the Grand Mosque, effectively militarizing it, will likely force Sistani to intervene and order him out. Then it will be a question of whether he comes out peacefully, to try and fight another battle someday or make a deal, or seeks a martyrdom that effectively ends his personal aspirations anyway.
By the way, I'm wondering how many troops you think the pacification of Iraq is worth.
Bilow, we simply have a failure to communicate here.. Or maybe it's just an intransigent effort on your part to avoid understanding my position.
Simply put, 9/11 has irrefutably and irrevocably put this nation at war with Islamic militancy. That attack, and American weakness in responding to previous attacks against us, has embolded these militant to attempt ever more daring operations to bring down our nation, our system, and our power.
I acknowledge that war has been thrust upon us, not just by Bin Laden, but by all Islamic Militants who seek to replace the current world order of secularist democracy and/or global commerce, with their own reactionary and regressive religious fanaticism and global Jihad.
Apparently you haven't accepted that.
Given that state of war, we have to undermine and alter the conditions that have spurred the advancement of such militant ideas. A major factor in creating those conditions has been the lack of democratic change, peaceful or revolutionary, within the muslim world. Petro-dollars, combined with tacit Western approval of a strategy of "stability" via the corrupt and economically incompetent regimes controlling that wealth has left many muslim youths disillusioned and easy prey for militant clerics who readily exploit the obvious corruption the US is seen as supporting.
Thus, the only means of "draining the swamp" which creates such disillusionment is for the US to be seen as a forceful advocate, even by force, if necessary, of regional political and economic positive change.
Along such lines our strategy, short term and long term, must be the following:
We need to forcefully invoke a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, possibly via a combined UN/NATO operation, which will remove much of the prevailing belief that the US is "controlled by Jews" and a pawn of Zionists.
We also need to continue pressuring such governments as Saudi Arabia and Iraq to open up their societies and espouse tolerance and economic and political opportunity and accountability. They need to advocate and instill an "intolerance for intolerance" with regard to their militant clerics (just as we would here in the US).
And we need to create national "role models" in select muslim countries, Iraq in particular, to display that democracy and economic globalization can actually better the lives of muslims in the long-run.
And we need to do this NOW, not await an even more catastrophic event that overshadows 9/11 in its tragedy.
We know that it will not be long before Islamic militants have the capability of using WMDs in suicide attacks. Maybe 5-10 years. And the death toll we can expect THEN will far exceed the losses of Americans incurred in trying to create a positive change in the region.
The Arab street sees the US as one of the forces that has led to their current situation of economic hopelessness and alienation. The past decades have shown that we could care less about their future, so long as they don't attack us, or destroy Israel.
What is required is that we show we're willing to fight and, if necessary, die, in order to empower and motivate the moderate and progressive segments of muslim society who are currently repressed and intimidated by the militants seeking to dominate them.
Because if we don't take these actions now, the moderate and progressive segments of muslim society will drastically decline in the region, being forced to emigrate to the West, or to accept the militant viewpoints being thrust upon them.
But it's the youth of the region that we have to worry most about. We have a choice of trying to change their social environment so they can be indoctrinated and educated in tolerant and progressive ideas (many of which originated via their own early Islamic thinkers) or permit them to be brainwashed in the intolerant and fanatical madrassas funded by the militants.
In sum, we fight the war now, or await the unstoppable eventuality where repression and totalitarian religion creates millions of "holy warriors" and control over the world's largest energy supplies.
So our difference in opinion, Carl, is that I prefer an pre-emptive and interdictive strategy NOW, while you seemingly prefer to hide your head in the sand, failing to read the handwriting on the wall, until it's apparent we have no other choice but to engage in another full-scale world war against a totalitarian militant movement bent upon delivering and massive death upon this country, as well as the west.
Your strategy of waiting and using "business interest" guarantees that Islamic militancy will be even harder to thwart down the road, as the democraghics and regional economic stagnation permit it to become even more entrenched within the youthful population of the region.
Hawk |
