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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (11454)4/7/2004 12:30:55 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (4) of 110194
 
there are a couple things i'm trying to get my mental mitt around...

It's the CBs that are to blame for not removing the punch bowl.

this could imply that commodities would go back to "normal" if only rates were "normalized"--a concept which itself is hard to put a number on, as even a 3% funds rate (the previous "let's party" rate of the early 90s) would be considered quite strict here, much as a decline to even a 20x PE on the SPX would cause a world of hurt even though it was historically a market top.

but my thinking regarding commodities, at least hydrocarbons, is that "you can't go home now"--i.e., we are in a different era which will be characterized by ever-escalating prices.

quite ironic how our reliance on cheap Chindian workers has come back to bite us in the ass at the gas pump and thermostat.

OPEC is running at full capacity and way above their "quotas", and then some, and it's still not enough

the thing i don't understand is why their Oil Minister would try to paint such a rosy picture. if he were to admit what you just said, we might expect oil prices to rise considerably, which would obviously benefit Aramco. so what is his motivation for not being up front about it? is he afraid the US will take over SA if oil prices spike?

i would think that internally, SA must welcome higher crude prices to deal with all their budgetary problems and pay off the imams.
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