why do you think that the supply forecasts for LNG in the post-2007 time frame are "way overoptimistic"?
"The potential is somewhat greater for increased imports of LNG to make at least some contribution to North American supply this decade.
For this to happen, however, many hurdles will have to be overcome – including, but not by any means limited to the siting of new re-gasification terminals. Even if these hurdles can be tackled successfully, however, we believe it is unlikely that imports of LNG into the U.S. market will increase by more than 1.0 TCf this decade (i.e., 3.0 BCf/day). This is less than ½ the amount assumed in many estimates. There are simply not enough new supply projects already under way in the Atlantic Basin and the lead time for completing new projects is too long for it to be realistic to expect more – especially given likely competition from European purchasers for these same supplies.
In the meantime, the amount of natural gas needed by the power sector in particular will continue to increase significantly every year. It is likely to be many, many years, therefore, before supplies of LNG can be ramped up sufficiently to catch up to continuously increasing North American demand – which is likely to continue increasing all through the next decade. In the interim, in an de-regulated, supplier driven market for natural gas, LNG prices may well be dictated more by the market-clearing price in an increasingly tight North American market than by the cost for producing LNG in the Atlantic Basin and delivering it into the pipeline system in the U.S., Canada or Mexico."
financialsense.com
see also: "Will LNG Save the US?"
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