The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (11457)	4/7/2004 2:43:16 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 110194

First an excellent synopsis on Saudi oil fields: simmonsco-intl.com <could imply that commodities would go back to "normal" if only rates were "normalized> Higher rates well tend to take the edge off this trade for speculators. Unfortunately for the Fed, it takes the edge off of the bond carry trade too. I think the market is now set up for huge price drops in debt instruments and bonds, even with only 25-50 bps FF increases. I don't think that will even ripple (maybe a pause, and slight downtick) commodities, as they are truly in short supply, it will take much higher rates now. Of course if 50 bps took down the world economy in a sudden bust, that would be a different story. The Train Wreck also has the potential of taking the world economy down suddenly in a bust. <Oil Minister would try to paint such a rosy picture> Yes, it's politics, trying to act like players on the world stage as if they control events. They could cause an oil spike, but are irrelevant on the extra supply side of taking prices back down significantly.

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