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Technology Stocks : Gemstar Intl (GMST)

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (6451)4/7/2004 8:53:37 PM
From: tinkershaw  Read Replies (1) of 6516
 
Mike,

I went back to several brokerage reports, and back to GMST's earnings report last quarter. What I believe I did was extrapolate $25 million in EPG revenues for the last quarter, but as it turns out, that figure included carriage fees as well so advertising is less.

So I have to correct myself, that number must have come from memory somewhere, but have found nothing else to substantiate.

What I have substantiated is that advertising revenues on the TV Guide Channel (ie, EPG) are expected to exceed $75 million in 2004 (and that is without calculating for any increase in rates due to increasing distribution, improved program quality, and estimated prior to the Comcast deal which increased the TV Guide Channel distribution to over 70 million homes). With carriage fees the EPG channel may reach $100 million 2004 if things go as predicted by the reports I have. Given the over $25 million in revenue for the EPG channel last quarter, $100 million is a real possibility, particularly now that distribution has increased substantially and GMST has invested in improving show quality.

If I find the source that got stuck in my head I will post it.

But the basic point is the same, the EPG can reap multi-millions of dollars in advertising, the IPG can potentially do so much more. So it is not just a vision, even the EPG can be worth substantial money.

Now I have to figure out where that figure came from, my brain locked on it.

Tinker
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