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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (3986)4/8/2004 7:05:05 PM
From: gregor_us  Read Replies (6) of 116555
 
Mish: The Problem with Any Change in the FF

is that the market automatically prices in another 2-4 hikes, immediately. So even the people who think 25bps would be "small" are kidding themselves. 25 bps would be huge unless it came with some sort of bizarre Fed Promise to not do it again for another 12 months--which is never gonna happen.

The TNX has already "hiked" 50bps since the Jobs report--but people are forgetting THAT does not kill the carry trade, and all attendant derivitaves.

FedFunds are at an Emergency Rate for a reason--but I don't have to tell you...
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