I thnik your comment on this board being a lovefest for TPRO is very valid.At times the board has turned into people at a horse race,rooting on their favorite.
My bet on TPRO is really very simple.It comes down to risk/reward.
1.We have belabored the capitalization issue to death.
2.In the Plant Y2K arena,TPRO certainly seems to have a real leg up on the competition.
3.This is a very well managed company.
4.I believe they will be a $100 mm in their basic business in 2 years,and should be able to earn 10% after taxes,which would equate presently to about $.45 in earnings.I give that 15x-17x p/e.Therefore I should have a $6 3/4-$7 5/8 target all else being equal.
5.Now for the Y2K business.I forsee them doing $30,000,000 this year and next,on a 12 month rolling average.I assume those margins after tax could be as high as 20%.So you could have incremental earnings of $.25 each year for the next 2 years.Therefore,I am looking at a stock that I think could earn $.45 in the next 12-15 months,and I would give it a multiple of 30x,seeing at what the comparable companies in the Y2K business are being capatized at presently.That gives me a $13 1/2 stock,which from this level makes me want to be a big owner,because I think the suprsies will be on the upside.
6.Time being our friend,I can forsee a number of new contract announcements,alliances,joint ventures,etc.
7.So in my eyes,this is a lovefest,and I hope to get more passionate over time. |
