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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 344.71-1.1%Jan 23 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (14378)4/9/2004 10:16:09 AM
From: Jess Beltz  Read Replies (3) of 95761
 
My big concern right now is that these flurries of magnificent earnings coming forward are going to be lost in a blizzard of worry if the situation in Iraq continues to descend into outright civil war and total anarchy. If the market becomes increasingly concerned that

(1) Many more troops will be needed to restore even a modicum of order,

(2) This particular outbreak will last for months,

(3) The whole Moslem world will be put on edge by it

(4) The Bush program for development will collapse, and

(5) The US will require massive deployments of troops and billions more in expenditures for years to come,

then wonderful earnings will not, I fear, matter much. The market will go into a very defensive, worried mode with lots of money fleeing to the sidelines until either things become clearer or the picture shows some sign of improvement. As for as our hopes for a nice April rally are concerned, this downward spiral in Iraq could not come at a worse time. Jess.
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